NODWIN Clutch Series 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
SPARTA#96 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Atreides#147 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Atreides ban
61%33%
SPARTA · 29 mapsedge SPARTA +28%Atreides · 8 maps
MirageSPARTA pick
57%74%
SPARTA · 17 mapsedge Atreides +17%Atreides · 19 maps
AncientSPARTA ban
38%56%
SPARTA · 17 mapsedge Atreides +18%Atreides · 12 maps
InfernoAtreides pick
43%60%
SPARTA · 10 mapsedge Atreides +17%Atreides · 11 maps
NukeSPARTA ban
47%60%
SPARTA · 15 mapsedge Atreides +13%Atreides · 6 maps
OverpassAtreides ban
45%43%
SPARTA · 7 mapsnearly even +2%Atreides · 10 maps
Cachepossible decider
44%50%
SPARTA · 5 mapsedge Atreides +6%Atreides · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSPARTA remove Ancient
2. BanAtreides remove Dust2
3. PickSPARTA take Mirage
4. PickAtreides take Inferno
5. BanAtreides remove Overpass
6. BanSPARTA remove Nuke
DeciderCache (44% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct5:13
SPARTA 31%Atreides 69%
The model gave 69% on Atreides — the map was taken by Atreides.
Mirageprediction correct11:13
SPARTA 35%Atreides 65%
The model gave 65% on Atreides — the map was taken by Atreides.
Model check result
Model favoriteAtreides · 52%
Series resultAtreides 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2