European Pro League Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
SPARTA#96 in the world · win 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ENCE#112 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ENCE ban
58%50%
SPARTA · 22 mapsedge SPARTA +8%ENCE · 2 maps
MirageSPARTA ban
44%46%
SPARTA · 12 mapsnearly even -2%ENCE · 9 maps
AncientSPARTA ban
29%60%
SPARTA · 13 mapsedge ENCE +31%ENCE · 6 maps
NukeENCE pick
47%67%
SPARTA · 13 mapsedge ENCE +20%ENCE · 5 maps
InfernoSPARTA pick
50%43%
SPARTA · 8 mapsedge SPARTA +7%ENCE · 3 maps
Overpasspossible decider
45%50%
SPARTA · 7 mapsedge ENCE +5%ENCE · 2 maps
DefaultENCE ban
33%50%
SPARTA · 2 mapsedge ENCE +17%ENCE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSPARTA remove Ancient
2. BanENCE remove Dust2
3. PickSPARTA take Inferno
4. PickENCE take Nuke
5. BanENCE remove Default
6. BanSPARTA remove Mirage
DeciderOverpass (45% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:11
SPARTA 28%ENCE 72%
The model gave 72% on ENCE — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Mirageprediction correct13:7
SPARTA 51%ENCE 49%
The model gave 51% on SPARTA — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Model check result
Model favoriteSPARTA · 60%
Series resultSPARTA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2