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ESEA Season 58 Europe Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
Spirit Academy Green#157 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BAKS#112 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheBAKS pick
50%71%
Spirit Academy Green · 2 mapsedge BAKS +21%BAKS · 17 maps
Dust2Spirit Academy Green pick
60%44%
Spirit Academy Green · 1 mapedge Spirit Academy Green +16%BAKS · 12 maps
Nukepossible decider
60%50%
Spirit Academy Green · 1 mapedge Spirit Academy Green +10%BAKS · 8 maps
InfernoSpirit Academy Green ban
50%33%
Spirit Academy Green · 0 mapsedge Spirit Academy Green +17%BAKS · 8 maps
MirageBAKS ban
57%56%
Spirit Academy Green · 3 mapsnearly even +1%BAKS · 5 maps
AncientSpirit Academy Green ban
50%70%
Spirit Academy Green · 0 mapsedge BAKS +20%BAKS · 6 maps
AnubisBAKS ban
50%50%
Spirit Academy Green · 2 mapsnearly even +0%BAKS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSpirit Academy Green remove Inferno
2. BanBAKS remove Anubis
3. PickSpirit Academy Green take Dust2
4. PickBAKS take Cache
5. BanBAKS remove Mirage
6. BanSpirit Academy Green remove Ancient
DeciderNuke (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct3:13
Spirit Academy Green 26%BAKS 74%
The model gave 74% on BAKS — the map was taken by BAKS.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
Spirit Academy Green 68%BAKS 32%
The model gave 68% on Spirit Academy Green — the map was taken by Spirit Academy Green.
Nukeprediction correct13:10
Spirit Academy Green 60%BAKS 40%
The model gave 60% on Spirit Academy Green — the map was taken by Spirit Academy Green.
Model check result
Model favoriteBAKS · 65%
Series resultSpirit Academy Green 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3