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ESEA Season 58 Europe Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
Spirit Academy Green#157 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Young TigeRES#156 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageYoung TigeRES pick
57%57%
Spirit Academy Green · 3 mapsnearly even +0%Young TigeRES · 3 maps
CacheYoung TigeRES ban
43%33%
Spirit Academy Green · 3 mapsedge Spirit Academy Green +10%Young TigeRES · 2 maps
NukeYoung TigeRES ban
67%57%
Spirit Academy Green · 2 mapsedge Spirit Academy Green +10%Young TigeRES · 3 maps
Dust2Spirit Academy Green pick
67%50%
Spirit Academy Green · 2 mapsedge Spirit Academy Green +17%Young TigeRES · 2 maps
AnubisSpirit Academy Green ban
50%50%
Spirit Academy Green · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Young TigeRES · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSpirit Academy Green remove Anubis
2. BanYoung TigeRES remove Cache
3. PickSpirit Academy Green take Dust2
4. PickYoung TigeRES take Mirage
5. BanYoung TigeRES remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed9:13
Spirit Academy Green 57%Young TigeRES 43%
The model gave 57% on Spirit Academy Green — the map was taken by Young TigeRES.
Anubisprediction correct13:9
Spirit Academy Green 53%Young TigeRES 47%
The model gave 53% on Spirit Academy Green — the map was taken by Spirit Academy Green.
Dust2prediction missed7:13
Spirit Academy Green 67%Young TigeRES 33%
The model gave 67% on Spirit Academy Green — the map was taken by Young TigeRES.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpirit Academy Green · 57%
Series resultYoung TigeRES 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3