Kibertochka Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Spirit Academy#111 in the world · win 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DONSTU#221 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
54%37%
Spirit Academy · 9 mapsedge Spirit Academy +17%DONSTU · 15 maps
AnubisDONSTU pick
60%50%
Spirit Academy · 1 mapedge Spirit Academy +10%DONSTU · 18 maps
AncientSpirit Academy pick
80%38%
Spirit Academy · 6 mapsedge Spirit Academy +42%DONSTU · 9 maps
CacheSpirit Academy ban
50%47%
Spirit Academy · 2 mapsnearly even +3%DONSTU · 11 maps
NukeDONSTU ban
44%25%
Spirit Academy · 5 mapsedge Spirit Academy +19%DONSTU · 8 maps
InfernoSpirit Academy ban
50%50%
Spirit Academy · 0 mapsnearly even +0%DONSTU · 6 maps
MirageDONSTU ban
38%40%
Spirit Academy · 4 mapsnearly even -2%DONSTU · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSpirit Academy remove Inferno
2. BanDONSTU remove Mirage
3. PickSpirit Academy take Ancient
4. PickDONSTU take Anubis
5. BanDONSTU remove Nuke
6. BanSpirit Academy remove Cache
DeciderDust2 (54% / 37%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:11
Spirit Academy 57%DONSTU 43%
The model gave 57% on Spirit Academy — the map was taken by Spirit Academy.
Ancientprediction correct13:8
Spirit Academy 88%DONSTU 12%
The model gave 88% on Spirit Academy — the map was taken by Spirit Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpirit Academy · 60%
Series resultSpirit Academy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2