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CCT 2026 Challengers Europe Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Spirit Academy#111 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
mellren#94 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragemellren pick
50%69%
Spirit Academy · 10 mapsedge mellren +19%mellren · 22 maps
AncientSpirit Academy pick
72%71%
Spirit Academy · 14 mapsnearly even +1%mellren · 13 maps
Dust2possible decider
53%62%
Spirit Academy · 13 mapsedge mellren +9%mellren · 9 maps
Nukemellren ban
40%23%
Spirit Academy · 11 mapsedge Spirit Academy +17%mellren · 9 maps
InfernoSpirit Academy ban
50%59%
Spirit Academy · 0 mapsedge mellren +9%mellren · 13 maps
Cachemellren ban
53%50%
Spirit Academy · 11 mapsnearly even +3%mellren · 0 maps
AnubisSpirit Academy ban
75%67%
Spirit Academy · 4 mapsedge Spirit Academy +8%mellren · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSpirit Academy remove Inferno
2. Banmellren remove Cache
3. PickSpirit Academy take Ancient
4. Pickmellren take Mirage
5. Banmellren remove Nuke
6. BanSpirit Academy remove Anubis
DeciderDust2 (53% / 62%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:10
Spirit Academy 71%mellren 29%
The model gave 71% on Spirit Academy — the map was taken by Spirit Academy.
Mirageprediction correct5:13
Spirit Academy 28%mellren 72%
The model gave 72% on mellren — the map was taken by mellren.
Ancientprediction missed4:13
Spirit Academy 52%mellren 48%
The model gave 52% on Spirit Academy — the map was taken by mellren.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpirit Academy · 57%
Series resultmellren 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3