Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Spirit HU#138 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Acend#125 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAcend pick
33%54%
Spirit HU · 2 mapsedge Acend +21%Acend · 22 maps
Dust2Acend ban
43%53%
Spirit HU · 3 mapsedge Acend +10%Acend · 15 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%63%
Spirit HU · 2 mapsedge Acend +13%Acend · 12 maps
AncientSpirit HU ban
50%47%
Spirit HU · 0 mapsnearly even +3%Acend · 13 maps
OverpassAcend ban
40%36%
Spirit HU · 1 mapnearly even +4%Acend · 10 maps
CacheSpirit HU ban
40%43%
Spirit HU · 1 mapnearly even -3%Acend · 3 maps
AnubisSpirit HU pick
60%67%
Spirit HU · 1 mapedge Acend +7%Acend · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSpirit HU remove Ancient
2. BanAcend remove Overpass
3. PickSpirit HU take Anubis
4. PickAcend take Mirage
5. BanAcend remove Dust2
6. BanSpirit HU remove Cache
DeciderInferno (50% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct6:13
Spirit HU 33%Acend 67%
The model gave 67% on Acend — the map was taken by Acend.
Infernoprediction correct4:13
Spirit HU 35%Acend 65%
The model gave 65% on Acend — the map was taken by Acend.
Model check result
Model favoriteAcend · 83%
Series resultAcend 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2