AR3NA Epicbet Open Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Spirit HU#138 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoDEFEATERS ban
50%50%
Spirit HU · 2 mapsnearly even +0%DEFEATERS · 0 maps
AncientSpirit HU ban
50%40%
Spirit HU · 0 mapsedge Spirit HU +10%DEFEATERS · 1 map
Dust2DEFEATERS pick
40%50%
Spirit HU · 1 mapedge DEFEATERS +10%DEFEATERS · 0 maps
MirageSpirit HU pick
40%50%
Spirit HU · 1 mapedge DEFEATERS +10%DEFEATERS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSpirit HU remove Ancient
2. BanDEFEATERS remove Inferno
3. PickSpirit HU take Mirage
4. PickDEFEATERS take Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct2:13
Spirit HU 37%DEFEATERS 63%
The model gave 63% on DEFEATERS — the map was taken by DEFEATERS.
Overpassprediction missed7:13
Spirit HU 53%DEFEATERS 47%
The model gave 53% on Spirit HU — the map was taken by DEFEATERS.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpirit HU · 53%
Series resultDEFEATERS 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2