Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Spirit HU#138 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:2
NRG#30 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeSpirit HU ban
50%54%
Spirit HU · 0 mapsnearly even -4%NRG · 9 maps
AncientSpirit HU ban
50%42%
Spirit HU · 0 mapsedge Spirit HU +8%NRG · 8 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%56%
Spirit HU · 2 mapsedge NRG +6%NRG · 5 maps
MirageNRG ban
40%44%
Spirit HU · 1 mapnearly even -4%NRG · 5 maps
CacheSpirit HU pick
50%78%
Spirit HU · 0 mapsedge NRG +28%NRG · 5 maps
Dust2NRG pick
33%57%
Spirit HU · 2 mapsedge NRG +24%NRG · 3 maps
OverpassNRG ban
40%40%
Spirit HU · 1 mapnearly even +0%NRG · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSpirit HU remove Ancient
2. BanNRG remove Overpass
3. PickSpirit HU take Cache
4. PickNRG take Dust2
5. BanNRG remove Mirage
6. BanSpirit HU remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (50% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct4:13
Spirit HU 48%NRG 52%
The model gave 52% on NRG — the map was taken by NRG.
Cacheprediction correct0:13
Spirit HU 20%NRG 80%
The model gave 80% on NRG — the map was taken by NRG.
Model check result
Model favoriteNRG · 81%
Series resultNRG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2