IEM Cologne Major 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Spirit#1 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Falcons#5 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Spirit pick
77%68%
Spirit · 9 mapsedge Spirit +9%Falcons · 15 maps
MirageFalcons ban
82%42%
Spirit · 7 mapsedge Spirit +40%Falcons · 8 maps
AncientFalcons pick
75%62%
Spirit · 4 mapsedge Spirit +13%Falcons · 9 maps
NukeSpirit ban
67%56%
Spirit · 2 mapsedge Spirit +11%Falcons · 5 maps
InfernoSpirit ban
50%44%
Spirit · 0 mapsedge Spirit +6%Falcons · 5 maps
Anubispossible decider
67%67%
Spirit · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Falcons · 2 maps
OverpassFalcons ban
29%50%
Spirit · 3 mapsedge Falcons +21%Falcons · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSpirit remove Inferno
2. BanFalcons remove Overpass
3. PickSpirit take Dust2
4. PickFalcons take Ancient
5. BanFalcons remove Mirage
6. BanSpirit remove Nuke
DeciderAnubis (67% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct14:16
Spirit 47%Falcons 53%
The model gave 53% on Falcons — the map was taken by Falcons.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
Spirit 88%Falcons 12%
The model gave 88% on Spirit — the map was taken by Spirit.
Dust2prediction missed12:16
Spirit 61%Falcons 39%
The model gave 61% on Spirit — the map was taken by Falcons.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpirit · 64%
Series resultFalcons 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3