BLAST Open Porto 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Spirit#1 in the world · win 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Falcons#5 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Spirit pick
68%71%
Spirit · 15 mapsnearly even -3%Falcons · 13 maps
Miragepossible decider
69%50%
Spirit · 12 mapsedge Spirit +19%Falcons · 6 maps
AncientFalcons ban
82%40%
Spirit · 7 mapsedge Spirit +42%Falcons · 6 maps
AnubisFalcons pick
75%67%
Spirit · 8 mapsedge Spirit +8%Falcons · 5 maps
InfernoSpirit ban
50%58%
Spirit · 0 mapsedge Falcons +8%Falcons · 8 maps
NukeSpirit ban
56%57%
Spirit · 5 mapsnearly even -1%Falcons · 3 maps
CacheFalcons ban
55%50%
Spirit · 7 mapsedge Spirit +5%Falcons · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSpirit remove Inferno
2. BanFalcons remove Cache
3. PickSpirit take Dust2
4. PickFalcons take Anubis
5. BanFalcons remove Ancient
6. BanSpirit remove Nuke
DeciderMirage (69% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:8
Spirit 45%Falcons 55%
The model gave 55% on Falcons — the map was taken by Spirit.
Ancientprediction correct13:11
Spirit 88%Falcons 12%
The model gave 88% on Spirit — the map was taken by Spirit.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpirit · 59%
Series resultSpirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2