PGL Astana 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Spirit#1 in the world · win 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
G2#7 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Spirit pick
71%45%
Spirit · 3 mapsedge Spirit +26%G2 · 7 maps
AncientG2 pick
67%75%
Spirit · 2 mapsedge G2 +8%G2 · 4 maps
MirageG2 ban
60%38%
Spirit · 1 mapedge Spirit +22%G2 · 4 maps
InfernoSpirit ban
50%43%
Spirit · 0 mapsedge Spirit +7%G2 · 3 maps
OverpassG2 ban
40%67%
Spirit · 1 mapedge G2 +27%G2 · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSpirit remove Inferno
2. BanG2 remove Mirage
3. PickSpirit take Dust2
4. PickG2 take Ancient
5. BanG2 remove Overpass
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
Spirit 77%G2 23%
The model gave 77% on Spirit — the map was taken by Spirit.
Ancientprediction missed13:11
Spirit 37%G2 63%
The model gave 63% on G2 — the map was taken by Spirit.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpirit · 67%
Series resultSpirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2