Esports World Cup 2026 · BO1
result vs prediction
Spirit#1 in the world · loss 10:13series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 10:13
JiJieHao#47 in the world · win 13:10The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2JiJieHao ban
63%40%
Spirit · 12 mapsedge Spirit +23%JiJieHao · 6 maps
AncientSpirit ban
75%64%
Spirit · 4 mapsedge Spirit +11%JiJieHao · 10 maps
Miragepossible decider
69%56%
Spirit · 9 mapsedge Spirit +13%JiJieHao · 5 maps
AnubisJiJieHao ban
70%50%
Spirit · 6 mapsedge Spirit +20%JiJieHao · 4 maps
InfernoSpirit ban
50%64%
Spirit · 0 mapsedge JiJieHao +14%JiJieHao · 10 maps
CacheSpirit ban
50%50%
Spirit · 2 mapsnearly even +0%JiJieHao · 4 maps
NukeJiJieHao ban
57%50%
Spirit · 3 mapsedge Spirit +7%JiJieHao · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSpirit remove Inferno
2. BanJiJieHao remove Nuke
3. BanSpirit remove Ancient
4. BanJiJieHao remove Anubis
5. BanSpirit remove Cache
6. BanJiJieHao remove Dust2
DeciderMirage (69% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed10:13
Spirit 64%JiJieHao 36%
The model gave 64% on Spirit — the map was taken by JiJieHao.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpirit · 93%
Series resultJiJieHao 10:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1