ESL Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
Spirit#1 in the world · win 2:0series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
M80#27 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheM80 pick
50%67%
Spirit · 8 mapsedge M80 +17%M80 · 14 maps
Dust2Spirit pick
67%50%
Spirit · 14 mapsedge Spirit +17%M80 · 8 maps
MirageSpirit ban
46%40%
Spirit · 9 mapsedge Spirit +6%M80 · 11 maps
AncientM80 ban
79%54%
Spirit · 10 mapsedge Spirit +25%M80 · 9 maps
Anubispossible decider
73%50%
Spirit · 7 mapsedge Spirit +23%M80 · 6 maps
InfernoSpirit ban
50%47%
Spirit · 0 mapsnearly even +3%M80 · 11 maps
NukeM80 ban
60%50%
Spirit · 6 mapsedge Spirit +10%M80 · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSpirit remove Inferno
2. BanM80 remove Nuke
3. PickSpirit take Dust2
4. PickM80 take Cache
5. BanM80 remove Ancient
6. BanSpirit remove Mirage
DeciderAnubis (73% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
Spirit 69%M80 31%
The model gave 69% on Spirit — the map was taken by Spirit.
Cacheprediction missed13:10
Spirit 31%M80 69%
The model gave 69% on M80 — the map was taken by Spirit.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpirit · 92%
Series resultSpirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2