IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
Spirit#1 in the world · win 13:1series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 13:1
MIBR#12 in the world · loss 1:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientMIBR ban
75%50%
Spirit · 4 mapsedge Spirit +25%MIBR · 2 maps
Miragepossible decider
71%57%
Spirit · 3 mapsedge Spirit +14%MIBR · 3 maps
Dust2MIBR ban
78%50%
Spirit · 5 mapsedge Spirit +28%MIBR · 0 maps
InfernoSpirit ban
50%43%
Spirit · 0 mapsedge Spirit +7%MIBR · 3 maps
AnubisSpirit ban
50%67%
Spirit · 0 mapsedge MIBR +17%MIBR · 2 maps
NukeSpirit ban
50%67%
Spirit · 0 mapsedge MIBR +17%MIBR · 2 maps
OverpassMIBR ban
40%40%
Spirit · 1 mapnearly even +0%MIBR · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSpirit remove Inferno
2. BanMIBR remove Dust2
3. BanSpirit remove Nuke
4. BanMIBR remove Overpass
5. BanSpirit remove Anubis
6. BanMIBR remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (71% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:1
Spirit 65%MIBR 35%
The model gave 65% on Spirit — the map was taken by Spirit.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpirit · 82%
Series resultSpirit 13:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1