FRAG Midwest St. Louis 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
SportsBetExpert#84 in the world · win 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoSportsBetExpert pick
57%50%
SportsBetExpert · 10 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +7%Elusive · 2 maps
Nukepossible decider
64%60%
SportsBetExpert · 7 mapsnearly even +4%Elusive · 1 map
Dust2Elusive ban
40%50%
SportsBetExpert · 6 mapsedge Elusive +10%Elusive · 0 maps
MirageSportsBetExpert ban
57%60%
SportsBetExpert · 3 mapsnearly even -3%Elusive · 1 map
AncientSportsBetExpert ban
50%43%
SportsBetExpert · 0 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +7%Elusive · 3 maps
AnubisElusive ban
71%50%
SportsBetExpert · 3 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +21%Elusive · 0 maps
CacheElusive pick
29%50%
SportsBetExpert · 3 mapsedge Elusive +21%Elusive · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSportsBetExpert remove Ancient
2. BanElusive remove Anubis
3. PickSportsBetExpert take Inferno
4. PickElusive take Cache
5. BanElusive remove Dust2
6. BanSportsBetExpert remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (64% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:3
SportsBetExpert 51%Elusive 49%
The model gave 51% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Anubisprediction correct13:4
SportsBetExpert 74%Elusive 26%
The model gave 74% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Model check result
Model favoriteElusive · 50%
Series resultSportsBetExpert 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2