FISSURE Playground 3 Asia Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Staquedloss 0:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Kaleido#167 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientStaqued pick
50%50%
Staqued · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Kaleido · 8 maps
Dust2Staqued ban
40%44%
Staqued · 1 mapnearly even -4%Kaleido · 5 maps
CacheKaleido ban
40%29%
Staqued · 1 mapedge Staqued +11%Kaleido · 3 maps
InfernoKaleido ban
50%38%
Staqued · 0 mapsedge Staqued +12%Kaleido · 4 maps
MirageKaleido pick
50%67%
Staqued · 0 mapsedge Kaleido +17%Kaleido · 2 maps
NukeStaqued ban
50%50%
Staqued · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Kaleido · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanStaqued remove Nuke
2. BanKaleido remove Cache
3. PickStaqued take Ancient
4. PickKaleido take Mirage
5. BanKaleido remove Inferno
6. BanStaqued remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed7:13
Staqued 65%Kaleido 35%
The model gave 65% on Staqued — the map was taken by Kaleido.
Ancientprediction correct1:13
Staqued 47%Kaleido 53%
The model gave 53% on Kaleido — the map was taken by Kaleido.
Model check result
Model favoriteKaleido · 59%
Series resultKaleido 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2