ESEA Intermediate Season 58 Oceania · BO3
result vs prediction
Staquedloss 1:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Mindfreak#129 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoMindfreak pick
40%47%
Staqued · 1 mapedge Mindfreak +7%Mindfreak · 13 maps
NukeStaqued ban
50%42%
Staqued · 0 mapsedge Staqued +8%Mindfreak · 8 maps
MirageStaqued pick
50%64%
Staqued · 0 mapsedge Mindfreak +14%Mindfreak · 7 maps
AnubisStaqued ban
50%33%
Staqued · 0 mapsedge Staqued +17%Mindfreak · 5 maps
Dust2Mindfreak ban
40%40%
Staqued · 1 mapnearly even +0%Mindfreak · 1 map
Ancientpossible decider
40%50%
Staqued · 1 mapedge Mindfreak +10%Mindfreak · 0 maps
CacheMindfreak ban
40%50%
Staqued · 1 mapedge Mindfreak +10%Mindfreak · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanStaqued remove Nuke
2. BanMindfreak remove Dust2
3. PickStaqued take Mirage
4. PickMindfreak take Inferno
5. BanMindfreak remove Cache
6. BanStaqued remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct1:13
Staqued 43%Mindfreak 57%
The model gave 57% on Mindfreak — the map was taken by Mindfreak.
Infernoprediction missed13:6
Staqued 40%Mindfreak 60%
The model gave 60% on Mindfreak — the map was taken by Staqued.
Mirageprediction correct7:13
Staqued 36%Mindfreak 64%
The model gave 64% on Mindfreak — the map was taken by Mindfreak.
Model check result
Model favoriteMindfreak · 66%
Series resultMindfreak 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3