DFRAG Invitational 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Staquedloss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Abyssal#129 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoAbyssal ban
38%41%
Staqued · 4 mapsnearly even -3%Abyssal · 13 maps
Dust2possible decider
40%60%
Staqued · 1 mapedge Abyssal +20%Abyssal · 11 maps
MirageAbyssal pick
40%71%
Staqued · 1 mapedge Abyssal +31%Abyssal · 10 maps
AncientStaqued pick
38%60%
Staqued · 4 mapsedge Abyssal +22%Abyssal · 6 maps
NukeStaqued ban
50%42%
Staqued · 0 mapsedge Staqued +8%Abyssal · 8 maps
CacheStaqued ban
33%57%
Staqued · 2 mapsedge Abyssal +24%Abyssal · 3 maps
AnubisAbyssal ban
50%40%
Staqued · 0 mapsedge Staqued +10%Abyssal · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanStaqued remove Nuke
2. BanAbyssal remove Anubis
3. PickStaqued take Ancient
4. PickAbyssal take Mirage
5. BanAbyssal remove Inferno
6. BanStaqued remove Cache
DeciderDust2 (40% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct2:13
Staqued 49%Abyssal 51%
The model gave 51% on Abyssal — the map was taken by Abyssal.
Cacheprediction correct8:13
Staqued 25%Abyssal 75%
The model gave 75% on Abyssal — the map was taken by Abyssal.
Model check result
Model favoriteAbyssal · 65%
Series resultAbyssal 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2