Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
STATE#137 in the world · win 2:1series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:1
ENCE#112 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageENCE ban
67%41%
STATE · 2 mapsedge STATE +26%ENCE · 18 maps
NukeSTATE pick
55%56%
STATE · 7 mapsnearly even -1%ENCE · 12 maps
AncientENCE ban
44%50%
STATE · 5 mapsedge ENCE +6%ENCE · 8 maps
AnubisSTATE ban
33%64%
STATE · 2 mapsedge ENCE +31%ENCE · 7 maps
InfernoENCE pick
57%80%
STATE · 3 mapsedge ENCE +23%ENCE · 6 maps
Cachepossible decider
60%63%
STATE · 1 mapnearly even -3%ENCE · 4 maps
OverpassSTATE ban
40%60%
STATE · 1 mapedge ENCE +20%ENCE · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSTATE remove Anubis
2. BanENCE remove Mirage
3. PickSTATE take Nuke
4. PickENCE take Inferno
5. BanENCE remove Ancient
6. BanSTATE remove Overpass
DeciderCache (60% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:8
STATE 50%ENCE 50%
The model gave 50% on STATE — the map was taken by STATE.
Mirageprediction missed10:13
STATE 72%ENCE 28%
The model gave 72% on STATE — the map was taken by ENCE.
Nukeprediction missed13:7
STATE 48%ENCE 52%
The model gave 52% on ENCE — the map was taken by STATE.
Model check result
Model favoriteENCE · 60%
Series resultSTATE 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3