Hotspawn Showdown 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
STATE#137 in the world · win 2:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Famalicão#153 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientFamalicão ban
36%29%
STATE · 7 mapsedge STATE +7%Famalicão · 3 maps
CacheSTATE pick
60%50%
STATE · 6 mapsedge STATE +10%Famalicão · 2 maps
NukeFamalicão ban
55%50%
STATE · 7 mapsedge STATE +5%Famalicão · 0 maps
MirageFamalicão pick
33%60%
STATE · 5 mapsedge Famalicão +27%Famalicão · 1 map
Infernopossible decider
38%40%
STATE · 4 mapsnearly even -2%Famalicão · 1 map
Dust2STATE ban
50%57%
STATE · 0 mapsedge Famalicão +7%Famalicão · 3 maps
AnubisSTATE ban
40%40%
STATE · 1 mapnearly even +0%Famalicão · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSTATE remove Dust2
2. BanFamalicão remove Nuke
3. PickSTATE take Cache
4. PickFamalicão take Mirage
5. BanFamalicão remove Ancient
6. BanSTATE remove Anubis
DeciderInferno (38% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct10:13
STATE 44%Famalicão 56%
The model gave 56% on Famalicão — the map was taken by Famalicão.
Cacheprediction correct13:11
STATE 63%Famalicão 37%
The model gave 63% on STATE — the map was taken by STATE.
Ancientprediction correct13:9
STATE 59%Famalicão 41%
The model gave 59% on STATE — the map was taken by STATE.
Model check result
Model favoriteFamalicão · 55%
Series resultSTATE 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3