Logitech G Play Connect 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
STATE#137 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
G2 Ares#103 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoSTATE pick
57%45%
STATE · 3 mapsedge STATE +12%G2 Ares · 18 maps
MirageG2 Ares pick
57%50%
STATE · 3 mapsedge STATE +7%G2 Ares · 18 maps
Dust2STATE ban
50%43%
STATE · 0 mapsedge STATE +7%G2 Ares · 19 maps
AncientSTATE ban
44%53%
STATE · 5 mapsedge G2 Ares +9%G2 Ares · 13 maps
Overpasspossible decider
40%42%
STATE · 1 mapnearly even -2%G2 Ares · 8 maps
NukeG2 Ares ban
58%50%
STATE · 8 mapsedge STATE +8%G2 Ares · 0 maps
AnubisG2 Ares ban
33%38%
STATE · 2 mapsedge G2 Ares +5%G2 Ares · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSTATE remove Dust2
2. BanG2 Ares remove Nuke
3. PickSTATE take Inferno
4. PickG2 Ares take Mirage
5. BanG2 Ares remove Anubis
6. BanSTATE remove Ancient
DeciderOverpass (40% / 42%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct2:13
STATE 39%G2 Ares 61%
The model gave 61% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Cacheprediction missed14:16
STATE 53%G2 Ares 47%
The model gave 53% on STATE — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 Ares · 67%
Series resultG2 Ares 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2