Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
STATE#137 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Lazer Cats#117 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientLazer Cats pick
50%58%
STATE · 4 mapsedge Lazer Cats +8%Lazer Cats · 8 maps
Miragepossible decider
67%38%
STATE · 5 mapsedge STATE +29%Lazer Cats · 4 maps
Dust2STATE ban
50%27%
STATE · 0 mapsedge STATE +23%Lazer Cats · 7 maps
InfernoSTATE pick
71%50%
STATE · 3 mapsedge STATE +21%Lazer Cats · 4 maps
NukeLazer Cats ban
67%60%
STATE · 5 mapsedge STATE +7%Lazer Cats · 1 map
AnubisSTATE ban
50%43%
STATE · 2 mapsedge STATE +7%Lazer Cats · 3 maps
OverpassLazer Cats ban
29%50%
STATE · 3 mapsedge Lazer Cats +21%Lazer Cats · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSTATE remove Dust2
2. BanLazer Cats remove Nuke
3. PickSTATE take Inferno
4. PickLazer Cats take Ancient
5. BanLazer Cats remove Overpass
6. BanSTATE remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (67% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed19:22
STATE 74%Lazer Cats 26%
The model gave 74% on STATE — the map was taken by Lazer Cats.
Ancientprediction correct9:13
STATE 39%Lazer Cats 61%
The model gave 61% on Lazer Cats — the map was taken by Lazer Cats.
Model check result
Model favoriteSTATE · 68%
Series resultLazer Cats 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2