Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
STATE#137 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Illyrians#144 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageIllyrians pick
38%60%
STATE · 4 mapsedge Illyrians +22%Illyrians · 6 maps
Ancientpossible decider
40%57%
STATE · 6 mapsedge Illyrians +17%Illyrians · 3 maps
NukeIllyrians ban
55%50%
STATE · 7 mapsedge STATE +5%Illyrians · 0 maps
Dust2STATE ban
50%50%
STATE · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Illyrians · 6 maps
InfernoIllyrians ban
38%50%
STATE · 4 mapsedge Illyrians +12%Illyrians · 2 maps
CacheSTATE pick
56%50%
STATE · 5 mapsedge STATE +6%Illyrians · 0 maps
AnubisSTATE ban
40%71%
STATE · 1 mapedge Illyrians +31%Illyrians · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSTATE remove Dust2
2. BanIllyrians remove Nuke
3. PickSTATE take Cache
4. PickIllyrians take Mirage
5. BanIllyrians remove Inferno
6. BanSTATE remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (40% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct11:13
STATE 26%Illyrians 74%
The model gave 74% on Illyrians — the map was taken by Illyrians.
Cacheprediction correct13:11
STATE 58%Illyrians 42%
The model gave 58% on STATE — the map was taken by STATE.
Ancientprediction correct12:16
STATE 33%Illyrians 67%
The model gave 67% on Illyrians — the map was taken by Illyrians.
Model check result
Model favoriteIllyrians · 56%
Series resultIllyrians 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3