Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
STATE#137 in the world · win 2:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Teletubisie#261 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukepossible decider
50%67%
STATE · 6 mapsedge Teletubisie +17%Teletubisie · 2 maps
CacheSTATE pick
50%43%
STATE · 4 mapsedge STATE +7%Teletubisie · 3 maps
AncientSTATE ban
33%50%
STATE · 5 mapsedge Teletubisie +17%Teletubisie · 0 maps
AnubisTeletubisie ban
40%33%
STATE · 1 mapedge STATE +7%Teletubisie · 2 maps
InfernoTeletubisie ban
43%50%
STATE · 3 mapsedge Teletubisie +7%Teletubisie · 0 maps
MirageTeletubisie pick
40%67%
STATE · 1 mapedge Teletubisie +27%Teletubisie · 2 maps
Dust2STATE ban
50%67%
STATE · 0 mapsedge Teletubisie +17%Teletubisie · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSTATE remove Dust2
2. BanTeletubisie remove Inferno
3. PickSTATE take Cache
4. PickTeletubisie take Mirage
5. BanTeletubisie remove Anubis
6. BanSTATE remove Ancient
DeciderNuke (50% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct10:13
STATE 23%Teletubisie 77%
The model gave 77% on Teletubisie — the map was taken by Teletubisie.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
STATE 53%Teletubisie 47%
The model gave 53% on STATE — the map was taken by STATE.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
STATE 50%Teletubisie 50%
The model gave 50% on STATE — the map was taken by STATE.
Model check result
Model favoriteSTATE · 60%
Series resultSTATE 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3