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Hotspawn Showdown 2026 Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
STATE#141 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The Last Resort#140 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
46%47%
STATE · 9 mapsnearly even -1%The Last Resort · 15 maps
NukeThe Last Resort pick
57%54%
STATE · 10 mapsnearly even +3%The Last Resort · 9 maps
CacheSTATE pick
54%46%
STATE · 9 mapsedge STATE +8%The Last Resort · 9 maps
InfernoSTATE ban
33%40%
STATE · 5 mapsedge The Last Resort +7%The Last Resort · 11 maps
AnubisThe Last Resort ban
57%45%
STATE · 3 mapsedge STATE +12%The Last Resort · 7 maps
MirageThe Last Resort ban
36%33%
STATE · 7 mapsnearly even +3%The Last Resort · 2 maps
Dust2STATE ban
50%36%
STATE · 0 mapsedge STATE +14%The Last Resort · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSTATE remove Dust2
2. BanThe Last Resort remove Mirage
3. PickSTATE take Cache
4. PickThe Last Resort take Nuke
5. BanThe Last Resort remove Anubis
6. BanSTATE remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (46% / 47%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:2
STATE 40%The Last Resort 60%
The model gave 60% on The Last Resort — the map was taken by STATE.
Anubisprediction missed10:13
STATE 64%The Last Resort 36%
The model gave 64% on STATE — the map was taken by The Last Resort.
Nukeprediction missed14:16
STATE 53%The Last Resort 47%
The model gave 53% on STATE — the map was taken by The Last Resort.
Model check result
Model favoriteSTATE · 55%
Series resultThe Last Resort 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3