CCT 2026 Europe Series 1 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
STATE#142 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ursa#88 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoUrsa pick
50%43%
STATE · 2 mapsedge STATE +7%Ursa · 3 maps
AncientUrsa ban
43%50%
STATE · 3 mapsedge Ursa +7%Ursa · 0 maps
NukeSTATE pick
67%40%
STATE · 2 mapsedge STATE +27%Ursa · 1 map
OverpassUrsa ban
50%40%
STATE · 2 mapsedge STATE +10%Ursa · 1 map
Dust2STATE ban
50%67%
STATE · 0 mapsedge Ursa +17%Ursa · 2 maps
Miragepossible decider
60%40%
STATE · 1 mapedge STATE +20%Ursa · 1 map
AnubisSTATE ban
60%50%
STATE · 1 mapedge STATE +10%Ursa · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSTATE remove Dust2
2. BanUrsa remove Ancient
3. PickSTATE take Nuke
4. PickUrsa take Inferno
5. BanUrsa remove Overpass
6. BanSTATE remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (60% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction missed20:22
STATE 63%Ursa 37%
The model gave 63% on STATE — the map was taken by Ursa.
Mirageprediction missed4:13
STATE 67%Ursa 33%
The model gave 67% on STATE — the map was taken by Ursa.
Model check result
Model favoriteUrsa · 61%
Series resultUrsa 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2