HopLan 2026 · BO1
result vs prediction
Strael Bora#239 in the world · win 13:1series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 13:1
Citronloss 1:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientCitron ban
50%50%
Strael Bora · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Citron · 0 maps
NukeCitron ban
57%50%
Strael Bora · 3 mapsedge Strael Bora +7%Citron · 0 maps
AnubisStrael Bora ban
40%50%
Strael Bora · 1 mapedge Citron +10%Citron · 0 maps
Dust2Strael Bora ban
50%60%
Strael Bora · 0 mapsedge Citron +10%Citron · 1 map
Infernopossible decider
40%50%
Strael Bora · 1 mapedge Citron +10%Citron · 0 maps
OverpassStrael Bora ban
40%50%
Strael Bora · 1 mapedge Citron +10%Citron · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanStrael Bora remove Anubis
2. BanCitron remove Nuke
3. BanStrael Bora remove Overpass
4. BanCitron remove Ancient
5. BanStrael Bora remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:1
Strael Bora 40%Citron 60%
The model gave 60% on Citron — the map was taken by Strael Bora.
Model check result
Model favoriteStrael Bora · 67%
Series resultStrael Bora 13:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1