HopLan 2026 · BO1
result vs prediction
Strael Bora#239 in the world · win 13:5series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 13:5
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientCitronnade ban
50%50%
Strael Bora · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Citronnade · 0 maps
InfernoStrael Bora ban
50%50%
Strael Bora · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Citronnade · 2 maps
Nukepossible decider
57%40%
Strael Bora · 3 mapsedge Strael Bora +17%Citronnade · 1 map
AnubisCitronnade ban
40%40%
Strael Bora · 1 mapnearly even +0%Citronnade · 1 map
CacheStrael Bora ban
50%60%
Strael Bora · 0 mapsedge Citronnade +10%Citronnade · 1 map
OverpassStrael Bora ban
40%50%
Strael Bora · 1 mapedge Citronnade +10%Citronnade · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanStrael Bora remove Overpass
2. BanCitronnade remove Anubis
3. BanStrael Bora remove Cache
4. BanCitronnade remove Ancient
5. BanStrael Bora remove Inferno
DeciderNuke (57% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:5
Strael Bora 50%Citronnade 50%
The model gave 50% on Strael Bora — the map was taken by Strael Bora.
Model check result
Model favoriteStrael Bora · 67%
Series resultStrael Bora 13:5
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1