ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Strael Bora#202 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Fire Flux#128 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisFire Flux pick
25%64%
Strael Bora · 4 mapsedge Fire Flux +39%Fire Flux · 10 maps
Dust2Strael Bora ban
40%53%
Strael Bora · 1 mapedge Fire Flux +13%Fire Flux · 13 maps
InfernoStrael Bora pick
57%55%
Strael Bora · 3 mapsnearly even +2%Fire Flux · 7 maps
MirageFire Flux ban
50%33%
Strael Bora · 0 mapsedge Strael Bora +17%Fire Flux · 8 maps
CacheStrael Bora ban
50%45%
Strael Bora · 0 mapsedge Strael Bora +5%Fire Flux · 7 maps
Nukepossible decider
29%63%
Strael Bora · 3 mapsedge Fire Flux +34%Fire Flux · 4 maps
AncientFire Flux ban
50%50%
Strael Bora · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Fire Flux · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanStrael Bora remove Dust2
2. BanFire Flux remove Ancient
3. PickStrael Bora take Inferno
4. PickFire Flux take Anubis
5. BanFire Flux remove Mirage
6. BanStrael Bora remove Cache
DeciderNuke (29% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct11:13
Strael Bora 14%Fire Flux 86%
The model gave 86% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Infernoprediction missed1:13
Strael Bora 56%Fire Flux 44%
The model gave 56% on Strael Bora — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Model check result
Model favoriteFire Flux · 55%
Series resultFire Flux 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2