Parken Challenger Championship Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Strael Bora#239 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Fortress#236 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientFortress pick
50%60%
Strael Bora · 2 mapsedge Fortress +10%Fortress · 1 map
InfernoStrael Bora ban
40%50%
Strael Bora · 1 mapedge Fortress +10%Fortress · 2 maps
NukeStrael Bora pick
67%50%
Strael Bora · 2 mapsedge Strael Bora +17%Fortress · 0 maps
Dust2Fortress ban
50%60%
Strael Bora · 0 mapsedge Fortress +10%Fortress · 1 map
MirageFortress ban
50%40%
Strael Bora · 0 mapsedge Strael Bora +10%Fortress · 1 map
OverpassStrael Bora ban
50%60%
Strael Bora · 0 mapsedge Fortress +10%Fortress · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanStrael Bora remove Overpass
2. BanFortress remove Mirage
3. PickStrael Bora take Nuke
4. PickFortress take Ancient
5. BanFortress remove Dust2
6. BanStrael Bora remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct14:16
Strael Bora 43%Fortress 57%
The model gave 57% on Fortress — the map was taken by Fortress.
Overpassprediction correct9:13
Strael Bora 37%Fortress 63%
The model gave 63% on Fortress — the map was taken by Fortress.
Model check result
Model favoriteFortress · 50%
Series resultFortress 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2