ESL Challenger League Season 51 North America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
F5#133 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientSurge pick
40%40%
Surge · 1 mapnearly even +0%F5 · 1 map
OverpassSurge ban
40%60%
Surge · 1 mapedge F5 +20%F5 · 1 map
InfernoF5 ban
50%40%
Surge · 0 mapsedge Surge +10%F5 · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSurge remove Overpass
2. BanF5 remove Inferno
3. PickSurge take Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed1:13
Surge 63%F5 37%
The model gave 63% on Surge — the map was taken by F5.
Nukeprediction correct2:13
Surge 47%F5 53%
The model gave 53% on F5 — the map was taken by F5.
Model check result
Model favoriteF5 · 63%
Series resultF5 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2