NODWIN Clutch Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
TDK#86 in the world · win 2:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Atreides#147 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Atreides ban
73%33%
TDK · 11 mapsedge TDK +40%Atreides · 5 maps
MirageAtreides pick
45%77%
TDK · 7 mapsedge Atreides +32%Atreides · 9 maps
OverpassTDK pick
75%42%
TDK · 8 mapsedge TDK +33%Atreides · 8 maps
Ancientpossible decider
55%64%
TDK · 7 mapsedge Atreides +9%Atreides · 7 maps
InfernoTDK ban
29%67%
TDK · 3 mapsedge Atreides +38%Atreides · 5 maps
DefaultAtreides ban
67%50%
TDK · 2 mapsedge TDK +17%Atreides · 2 maps
NukeTDK ban
40%57%
TDK · 1 mapedge Atreides +17%Atreides · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTDK remove Nuke
2. BanAtreides remove Dust2
3. PickTDK take Overpass
4. PickAtreides take Mirage
5. BanAtreides remove Default
6. BanTDK remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (55% / 64%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
TDK 67%Atreides 33%
The model gave 67% on TDK — the map was taken by Atreides.
Overpassprediction correct13:6
TDK 83%Atreides 17%
The model gave 83% on TDK — the map was taken by TDK.
Ancientprediction missed13:2
TDK 41%Atreides 59%
The model gave 59% on Atreides — the map was taken by TDK.
Model check result
Model favoriteTDK · 53%
Series resultTDK 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3