NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
TDK#86 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nuclear TigeRES#54 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisTDK pick
50%56%
TDK · 2 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +6%Nuclear TigeRES · 5 maps
Dust2Nuclear TigeRES ban
71%60%
TDK · 3 mapsedge TDK +11%Nuclear TigeRES · 1 map
AncientNuclear TigeRES pick
60%67%
TDK · 1 mapedge Nuclear TigeRES +7%Nuclear TigeRES · 2 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%60%
TDK · 2 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +10%Nuclear TigeRES · 1 map
InfernoTDK ban
40%60%
TDK · 1 mapedge Nuclear TigeRES +20%Nuclear TigeRES · 1 map
NukeTDK ban
50%33%
TDK · 0 mapsedge TDK +17%Nuclear TigeRES · 2 maps
DefaultNuclear TigeRES ban
60%50%
TDK · 1 mapedge TDK +10%Nuclear TigeRES · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTDK remove Nuke
2. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Default
3. PickTDK take Anubis
4. PickNuclear TigeRES take Ancient
5. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Dust2
6. BanTDK remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct5:13
TDK 40%Nuclear TigeRES 60%
The model gave 60% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Dust2prediction missed7:13
TDK 65%Nuclear TigeRES 35%
The model gave 65% on TDK — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Model check result
Model favoriteTDK · 52%
Series resultNuclear TigeRES 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2