Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
TDK#86 in the world · win 1:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Omega#148 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Omega pick
69%75%
TDK · 9 mapsedge Omega +6%Omega · 8 maps
AncientTDK ban
55%70%
TDK · 7 mapsedge Omega +15%Omega · 6 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%56%
TDK · 6 mapsedge Omega +6%Omega · 5 maps
OverpassTDK pick
73%25%
TDK · 7 mapsedge TDK +48%Omega · 4 maps
NukeTDK ban
40%44%
TDK · 1 mapnearly even -4%Omega · 5 maps
AnubisOmega ban
50%50%
TDK · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Omega · 0 maps
InfernoOmega ban
33%50%
TDK · 2 mapsedge Omega +17%Omega · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTDK remove Nuke
2. BanOmega remove Inferno
3. PickTDK take Overpass
4. PickOmega take Dust2
5. BanOmega remove Anubis
6. BanTDK remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (50% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
TDK 50%Omega 50%
The model gave 50% on TDK — the map was taken by TDK.
Model check result
Model favoriteTDK · 70%
Series resultTDK 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1