European Pro League Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
TDK#86 in the world · win 1:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Young Ninjas#103 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2TDK pick
75%41%
TDK · 12 mapsedge TDK +34%Young Ninjas · 13 maps
AncientYoung Ninjas ban
62%60%
TDK · 9 mapsnearly even +2%Young Ninjas · 6 maps
OverpassYoung Ninjas pick
79%67%
TDK · 10 mapsedge TDK +12%Young Ninjas · 5 maps
MirageYoung Ninjas ban
50%30%
TDK · 8 mapsedge TDK +20%Young Ninjas · 6 maps
AnubisTDK ban
50%55%
TDK · 4 mapsedge Young Ninjas +5%Young Ninjas · 7 maps
NukeTDK ban
40%77%
TDK · 1 mapedge Young Ninjas +37%Young Ninjas · 9 maps
Defaultpossible decider
57%50%
TDK · 3 mapsedge TDK +7%Young Ninjas · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTDK remove Nuke
2. BanYoung Ninjas remove Mirage
3. PickTDK take Dust2
4. PickYoung Ninjas take Overpass
5. BanYoung Ninjas remove Ancient
6. BanTDK remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (57% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
TDK 57%Young Ninjas 43%
The model gave 57% on TDK — the map was taken by TDK.
Model check result
Model favoriteTDK · 55%
Series resultTDK 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1