ESL Challenger League Season 51 Asia-Pacific Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
The Huns#152 in the world · win 1:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:0
BMZ#121 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientThe Huns ban
50%60%
The Huns · 0 mapsedge BMZ +10%BMZ · 1 map
DefaultBMZ ban
60%50%
The Huns · 1 mapedge The Huns +10%BMZ · 0 maps
Dust2BMZ pick
50%60%
The Huns · 0 mapsedge BMZ +10%BMZ · 1 map
MirageThe Huns pick
50%40%
The Huns · 0 mapsedge The Huns +10%BMZ · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe Huns remove Ancient
2. BanBMZ remove Default
3. PickThe Huns take Mirage
4. PickBMZ take Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
The Huns 60%BMZ 40%
The model gave 60% on The Huns — the map was taken by The Huns.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Huns · 65%
Series resultThe Huns 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1