ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
The Huns#123 in the world · win 2:1series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nas#189 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeThe Huns pick
67%40%
The Huns · 8 mapsedge The Huns +27%Nas · 1 map
Ancientpossible decider
60%40%
The Huns · 6 mapsedge The Huns +20%Nas · 1 map
Dust2Nas pick
45%50%
The Huns · 7 mapsedge Nas +5%Nas · 0 maps
InfernoThe Huns ban
33%50%
The Huns · 5 mapsedge Nas +17%Nas · 0 maps
MirageNas ban
43%50%
The Huns · 3 mapsedge Nas +7%Nas · 0 maps
CacheThe Huns ban
50%50%
The Huns · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Nas · 0 maps
OverpassNas ban
60%50%
The Huns · 1 mapedge The Huns +10%Nas · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe Huns remove Inferno
2. BanNas remove Mirage
3. PickThe Huns take Nuke
4. PickNas take Dust2
5. BanNas remove Overpass
6. BanThe Huns remove Cache
DeciderAncient (60% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:5
The Huns 67%Nas 33%
The model gave 67% on The Huns — the map was taken by The Huns.
Nukeprediction missed9:13
The Huns 77%Nas 23%
The model gave 77% on The Huns — the map was taken by Nas.
Dust2prediction missed13:7
The Huns 45%Nas 55%
The model gave 55% on Nas — the map was taken by The Huns.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Huns · 73%
Series resultThe Huns 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3