ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
The Huns#123 in the world · win 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Vitalem Aerem#180 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Vitalem Aerem pick
46%71%
The Huns · 9 mapsedge Vitalem Aerem +25%Vitalem Aerem · 3 maps
NukeThe Huns pick
57%40%
The Huns · 10 mapsedge The Huns +17%Vitalem Aerem · 1 map
Ancientpossible decider
64%50%
The Huns · 7 mapsedge The Huns +14%Vitalem Aerem · 2 maps
InfernoThe Huns ban
33%43%
The Huns · 5 mapsedge Vitalem Aerem +10%Vitalem Aerem · 3 maps
MirageVitalem Aerem ban
43%50%
The Huns · 3 mapsedge Vitalem Aerem +7%Vitalem Aerem · 0 maps
CacheVitalem Aerem ban
50%50%
The Huns · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Vitalem Aerem · 0 maps
AnubisThe Huns ban
50%60%
The Huns · 0 mapsedge Vitalem Aerem +10%Vitalem Aerem · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe Huns remove Anubis
2. BanVitalem Aerem remove Cache
3. PickThe Huns take Nuke
4. PickVitalem Aerem take Dust2
5. BanVitalem Aerem remove Mirage
6. BanThe Huns remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (64% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:8
The Huns 28%Vitalem Aerem 72%
The model gave 72% on Vitalem Aerem — the map was taken by The Huns.
Nukeprediction correct13:6
The Huns 64%Vitalem Aerem 36%
The model gave 64% on The Huns — the map was taken by The Huns.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Huns · 76%
Series resultThe Huns 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2