ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
The KnockoutX#287 in the world · loss 0:1series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Lynn Vision#39 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientThe KnockoutX pick
75%62%
The KnockoutX · 4 mapsedge The KnockoutX +13%Lynn Vision · 9 maps
Dust2Lynn Vision pick
50%57%
The KnockoutX · 2 mapsedge Lynn Vision +7%Lynn Vision · 10 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%58%
The KnockoutX · 0 mapsedge Lynn Vision +8%Lynn Vision · 8 maps
NukeThe KnockoutX ban
50%60%
The KnockoutX · 0 mapsedge Lynn Vision +10%Lynn Vision · 6 maps
MirageLynn Vision ban
57%50%
The KnockoutX · 3 mapsedge The KnockoutX +7%Lynn Vision · 0 maps
AnubisThe KnockoutX ban
50%50%
The KnockoutX · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Lynn Vision · 2 maps
CacheLynn Vision ban
50%33%
The KnockoutX · 0 mapsedge The KnockoutX +17%Lynn Vision · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe KnockoutX remove Nuke
2. BanLynn Vision remove Mirage
3. PickThe KnockoutX take Ancient
4. PickLynn Vision take Dust2
5. BanLynn Vision remove Cache
6. BanThe KnockoutX remove Anubis
DeciderInferno (50% / 58%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
The KnockoutX 50%Lynn Vision 50%
The model gave 50% on The KnockoutX — the map was taken by Lynn Vision.
Model check result
Model favoriteLynn Vision · 87%
Series resultLynn Vision 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1