ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
The KnockoutX#287 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The Huns#123 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
50%50%
The KnockoutX · 0 mapsnearly even +0%The Huns · 16 maps
NukeThe Huns pick
50%56%
The KnockoutX · 0 mapsedge The Huns +6%The Huns · 14 maps
InfernoThe Huns ban
50%27%
The KnockoutX · 0 mapsedge The KnockoutX +23%The Huns · 11 maps
AncientThe KnockoutX ban
50%58%
The KnockoutX · 0 mapsedge The Huns +8%The Huns · 8 maps
MirageThe KnockoutX pick
50%27%
The KnockoutX · 0 mapsedge The KnockoutX +23%The Huns · 7 maps
CacheThe Huns ban
50%56%
The KnockoutX · 0 mapsedge The Huns +6%The Huns · 5 maps
OverpassThe KnockoutX ban
50%60%
The KnockoutX · 0 mapsedge The Huns +10%The Huns · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe KnockoutX remove Overpass
2. BanThe Huns remove Inferno
3. PickThe KnockoutX take Mirage
4. PickThe Huns take Nuke
5. BanThe Huns remove Cache
6. BanThe KnockoutX remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed9:13
The KnockoutX 53%The Huns 47%
The model gave 53% on The KnockoutX — the map was taken by The Huns.
Ancientprediction missed13:9
The KnockoutX 39%The Huns 61%
The model gave 61% on The Huns — the map was taken by The KnockoutX.
Mirageprediction missed7:13
The KnockoutX 73%The Huns 27%
The model gave 73% on The KnockoutX — the map was taken by The Huns.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Huns · 68%
Series resultThe Huns 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3