Stake Pulse Beat I · BO3
result vs prediction
The Last Resort#159 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Betclic#65 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukepossible decider
50%37%
The Last Resort · 14 mapsedge The Last Resort +13%Betclic · 15 maps
AncientThe Last Resort ban
53%50%
The Last Resort · 11 mapsnearly even +3%Betclic · 6 maps
AnubisBetclic pick
43%69%
The Last Resort · 3 mapsedge Betclic +26%Betclic · 12 maps
OverpassThe Last Resort pick
64%30%
The Last Resort · 7 mapsedge The Last Resort +34%Betclic · 6 maps
Dust2Betclic ban
56%36%
The Last Resort · 5 mapsedge The Last Resort +20%Betclic · 7 maps
MirageThe Last Resort ban
25%45%
The Last Resort · 4 mapsedge Betclic +20%Betclic · 7 maps
InfernoBetclic ban
67%29%
The Last Resort · 5 mapsedge The Last Resort +38%Betclic · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe Last Resort remove Mirage
2. BanBetclic remove Inferno
3. PickThe Last Resort take Overpass
4. PickBetclic take Anubis
5. BanBetclic remove Dust2
6. BanThe Last Resort remove Ancient
DeciderNuke (50% / 37%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed6:13
The Last Resort 66%Betclic 34%
The model gave 66% on The Last Resort — the map was taken by Betclic.
Anubisprediction missed19:17
The Last Resort 23%Betclic 77%
The model gave 77% on Betclic — the map was taken by The Last Resort.
Ancientprediction missed6:13
The Last Resort 53%Betclic 47%
The model gave 53% on The Last Resort — the map was taken by Betclic.
Model check result
Model favoriteBetclic · 69%
Series resultBetclic 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3