ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
The Last Resort#159 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
fnatic#36 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageThe Last Resort ban
27%60%
The Last Resort · 7 mapsedge fnatic +33%fnatic · 11 maps
AncientThe Last Resort pick
64%50%
The Last Resort · 10 mapsedge The Last Resort +14%fnatic · 6 maps
Anubispossible decider
71%53%
The Last Resort · 3 mapsedge The Last Resort +18%fnatic · 13 maps
Infernofnatic pick
56%77%
The Last Resort · 5 mapsedge fnatic +21%fnatic · 9 maps
Dust2The Last Resort ban
33%50%
The Last Resort · 2 mapsedge fnatic +17%fnatic · 10 maps
Nukefnatic ban
38%50%
The Last Resort · 12 mapsedge fnatic +12%fnatic · 0 maps
Overpassfnatic ban
64%33%
The Last Resort · 10 mapsedge The Last Resort +31%fnatic · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe Last Resort remove Dust2
2. Banfnatic remove Nuke
3. PickThe Last Resort take Ancient
4. Pickfnatic take Inferno
5. Banfnatic remove Overpass
6. BanThe Last Resort remove Mirage
DeciderAnubis (71% / 53%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed4:13
The Last Resort 67%fnatic 33%
The model gave 67% on The Last Resort — the map was taken by fnatic.
Cacheprediction correct9:13
The Last Resort 47%fnatic 53%
The model gave 53% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Model check result
Model favoritefnatic · 67%
Series resultfnatic 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2