ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
The Last Resort#159 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OG#203 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeThe Last Resort pick
53%40%
The Last Resort · 13 mapsedge The Last Resort +13%OG · 6 maps
AncientOG ban
47%56%
The Last Resort · 11 mapsedge OG +9%OG · 5 maps
Dust2OG pick
45%69%
The Last Resort · 7 mapsedge OG +24%OG · 9 maps
InfernoThe Last Resort ban
56%50%
The Last Resort · 5 mapsedge The Last Resort +6%OG · 6 maps
Overpasspossible decider
67%60%
The Last Resort · 5 mapsedge The Last Resort +7%OG · 6 maps
CacheOG ban
56%29%
The Last Resort · 5 mapsedge The Last Resort +27%OG · 3 maps
MirageThe Last Resort ban
40%55%
The Last Resort · 1 mapedge OG +15%OG · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe Last Resort remove Mirage
2. BanOG remove Cache
3. PickThe Last Resort take Nuke
4. PickOG take Dust2
5. BanOG remove Ancient
6. BanThe Last Resort remove Inferno
DeciderOverpass (67% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed10:13
The Last Resort 66%OG 34%
The model gave 66% on The Last Resort — the map was taken by OG.
Dust2prediction correct2:13
The Last Resort 25%OG 75%
The model gave 75% on OG — the map was taken by OG.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 60%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2