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Intel EPIC48 · BO3
result vs prediction
The Last Resort#159 in the world · win 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Privateer#226 in the world · loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukePrivateer pick
45%57%
The Last Resort · 16 mapsedge Privateer +12%Privateer · 3 maps
AncientThe Last Resort pick
56%50%
The Last Resort · 12 mapsedge The Last Resort +6%Privateer · 2 maps
OverpassPrivateer ban
64%50%
The Last Resort · 10 mapsedge The Last Resort +14%Privateer · 0 maps
MirageThe Last Resort ban
27%60%
The Last Resort · 7 mapsedge Privateer +33%Privateer · 1 map
InfernoPrivateer ban
60%50%
The Last Resort · 6 mapsedge The Last Resort +10%Privateer · 0 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%40%
The Last Resort · 4 mapsedge The Last Resort +10%Privateer · 1 map
Dust2The Last Resort ban
50%60%
The Last Resort · 4 mapsedge Privateer +10%Privateer · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe Last Resort remove Mirage
2. BanPrivateer remove Overpass
3. PickThe Last Resort take Ancient
4. PickPrivateer take Nuke
5. BanPrivateer remove Inferno
6. BanThe Last Resort remove Dust2
DeciderCache (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:10
The Last Resort 35%Privateer 65%
The model gave 65% on Privateer — the map was taken by The Last Resort.
Dust2prediction missed13:3
The Last Resort 43%Privateer 57%
The model gave 57% on Privateer — the map was taken by The Last Resort.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Last Resort · 67%
Series resultThe Last Resort 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2