European Pro League Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
The Last Resort#159 in the world · win 2:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2The Last Resort ban
33%50%
The Last Resort · 2 mapsedge PsychoFace +17%PsychoFace · 18 maps
NukePsychoFace pick
29%38%
The Last Resort · 10 mapsedge PsychoFace +9%PsychoFace · 9 maps
OverpassThe Last Resort pick
64%67%
The Last Resort · 10 mapsnearly even -3%PsychoFace · 8 maps
MirageThe Last Resort ban
30%36%
The Last Resort · 6 mapsedge PsychoFace +6%PsychoFace · 10 maps
AncientPsychoFace ban
64%25%
The Last Resort · 10 mapsedge The Last Resort +39%PsychoFace · 4 maps
Anubispossible decider
71%50%
The Last Resort · 3 mapsedge The Last Resort +21%PsychoFace · 6 maps
InfernoPsychoFace ban
50%50%
The Last Resort · 4 mapsnearly even +0%PsychoFace · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe Last Resort remove Dust2
2. BanPsychoFace remove Ancient
3. PickThe Last Resort take Overpass
4. PickPsychoFace take Nuke
5. BanPsychoFace remove Inferno
6. BanThe Last Resort remove Mirage
DeciderAnubis (71% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:10
The Last Resort 53%PsychoFace 47%
The model gave 53% on The Last Resort — the map was taken by The Last Resort.
Mirageprediction correct9:13
The Last Resort 41%PsychoFace 59%
The model gave 59% on PsychoFace — the map was taken by PsychoFace.
Nukeprediction missed13:4
The Last Resort 39%PsychoFace 61%
The model gave 61% on PsychoFace — the map was taken by The Last Resort.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Last Resort · 50%
Series resultThe Last Resort 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3