PGL Astana 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
The MongolZ#16 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aurora#6 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Aurora pick
43%50%
The MongolZ · 3 mapsedge Aurora +7%Aurora · 4 maps
InfernoThe MongolZ pick
71%50%
The MongolZ · 3 mapsedge The MongolZ +21%Aurora · 0 maps
NukeThe MongolZ ban
50%43%
The MongolZ · 0 mapsedge The MongolZ +7%Aurora · 3 maps
MirageAurora ban
50%50%
The MongolZ · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Aurora · 0 maps
AncientAurora ban
40%50%
The MongolZ · 1 mapedge Aurora +10%Aurora · 0 maps
AnubisThe MongolZ ban
50%60%
The MongolZ · 0 mapsedge Aurora +10%Aurora · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe MongolZ remove Anubis
2. BanAurora remove Ancient
3. PickThe MongolZ take Inferno
4. PickAurora take Dust2
5. BanAurora remove Mirage
6. BanThe MongolZ remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction correct11:13
The MongolZ 47%Aurora 53%
The model gave 53% on Aurora — the map was taken by Aurora.
Mirageprediction missed10:13
The MongolZ 53%Aurora 47%
The model gave 53% on The MongolZ — the map was taken by Aurora.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora · 56%
Series resultAurora 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2