PGL Astana 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
The MongolZ#16 in the world · win 2:0series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
magic#18 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageThe MongolZ ban
50%71%
The MongolZ · 0 mapsedge magic +21%magic · 3 maps
Dust2The MongolZ pick
50%60%
The MongolZ · 0 mapsedge magic +10%magic · 1 map
Infernomagic pick
50%60%
The MongolZ · 0 mapsedge magic +10%magic · 1 map
Overpassmagic ban
50%60%
The MongolZ · 0 mapsedge magic +10%magic · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe MongolZ remove Mirage
2. Banmagic remove Overpass
3. PickThe MongolZ take Dust2
4. Pickmagic take Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed25:23
The MongolZ 26%magic 74%
The model gave 74% on magic — the map was taken by The MongolZ.
Infernoprediction missed13:4
The MongolZ 43%magic 57%
The model gave 57% on magic — the map was taken by The MongolZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe MongolZ · 82%
Series resultThe MongolZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2