FISSURE Playground 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
The MongolZ#14 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MIBR#28 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeMIBR pick
44%54%
The MongolZ · 5 mapsedge MIBR +10%MIBR · 9 maps
MirageThe MongolZ ban
50%55%
The MongolZ · 6 mapsedge MIBR +5%MIBR · 7 maps
InfernoThe MongolZ pick
50%60%
The MongolZ · 6 mapsedge MIBR +10%MIBR · 6 maps
AncientThe MongolZ ban
38%36%
The MongolZ · 4 mapsnearly even +2%MIBR · 7 maps
CacheMIBR ban
60%63%
The MongolZ · 1 mapnearly even -3%MIBR · 4 maps
Dust2MIBR ban
67%50%
The MongolZ · 5 mapsedge The MongolZ +17%MIBR · 0 maps
Overpasspossible decider
50%50%
The MongolZ · 2 mapsnearly even +0%MIBR · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe MongolZ remove Ancient
2. BanMIBR remove Dust2
3. PickThe MongolZ take Inferno
4. PickMIBR take Nuke
5. BanMIBR remove Cache
6. BanThe MongolZ remove Mirage
DeciderOverpass (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:5
The MongolZ 48%MIBR 52%
The model gave 52% on MIBR — the map was taken by The MongolZ.
Mirageprediction correct10:13
The MongolZ 48%MIBR 52%
The model gave 52% on MIBR — the map was taken by MIBR.
Infernoprediction correct12:16
The MongolZ 40%MIBR 60%
The model gave 60% on MIBR — the map was taken by MIBR.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe MongolZ · 65%
Series resultMIBR 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3