Esports World Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
The MongolZ#16 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincere#10 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
50%57%
The MongolZ · 6 mapsedge Natus Vincere +7%Natus Vincere · 3 maps
AncientNatus Vincere pick
33%71%
The MongolZ · 5 mapsedge Natus Vincere +38%Natus Vincere · 3 maps
Dust2The MongolZ pick
75%38%
The MongolZ · 4 mapsedge The MongolZ +37%Natus Vincere · 4 maps
InfernoThe MongolZ ban
57%63%
The MongolZ · 3 mapsedge Natus Vincere +6%Natus Vincere · 4 maps
NukeNatus Vincere ban
44%50%
The MongolZ · 5 mapsedge Natus Vincere +6%Natus Vincere · 2 maps
AnubisThe MongolZ ban
50%43%
The MongolZ · 0 mapsedge The MongolZ +7%Natus Vincere · 3 maps
OverpassNatus Vincere ban
50%50%
The MongolZ · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Natus Vincere · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe MongolZ remove Anubis
2. BanNatus Vincere remove Overpass
3. PickThe MongolZ take Dust2
4. PickNatus Vincere take Ancient
5. BanNatus Vincere remove Nuke
6. BanThe MongolZ remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct5:13
The MongolZ 47%Natus Vincere 53%
The model gave 53% on Natus Vincere — the map was taken by Natus Vincere.
Ancientprediction missed13:9
The MongolZ 15%Natus Vincere 85%
The model gave 85% on Natus Vincere — the map was taken by The MongolZ.
Mirageprediction correct8:13
The MongolZ 43%Natus Vincere 57%
The model gave 57% on Natus Vincere — the map was taken by Natus Vincere.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 73%
Series resultNatus Vincere 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3